BBAI

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.

NYSE · TECHNOLOGY · SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

2.19

+0.02 +0.92%

USD · close Oct 21

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MKT CAP $1.1BP/E —DIV YIELD —FCF YIELD -6.92%REV TTM $131.6M −13.7%NET INCOME −$85.8MNET CASH $19.6M52W 2.12 – 7.17SEC XBRL · TTM TO Invalid Date

How BBAI rewrote its risk factors

10-K ITEM 1A · FY2024 → FY2025

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Consistent with the foregoing, we are exposed to a variety of risks, including risks associated with: • a significant portion of our business being dependent on sales to the public/government sector, including the risk that we may not receive or maintain government contracts or may not receive the full benefit of such contracts; • the U.S. government’s budget deficit and the national debt, as well as any inability of the U.S. government to complete its budget process for any government fiscal year and consequently having to shut down or operate on funding levels equivalent to its prior fiscal year; • our limited operating history as a combined company, which makes it difficult to evaluate our current business and future prospects; • our ability to sustain our revenue growth in the future; • our ability to execute our strategy to grow our business and increase our sales and the number and types of markets we compete in; • the length of our sales cycle and the time and expense associated with it; • our ability to grow our customer base and to expand our relationships with our existing customers, including with our government customers; • our reliance on customers in the public/government sector including the U.S. government, whose contracts are often only partially funded, subject to immediate termination, and heavily regulated and audited; • the market and our customers accepting and adopting our products, including future new product offerings; • the impact of health epidemics, on our business, financial condition, growth and the actions we may take in response thereto; • competition in our industry; • our ability to gain contracts on favorable terms, including with our government customers; • our ability to grow, maintain and enhance our brand and reputation; • risks related to security and our technology, including cybersecurity; • our ability to maintain competitive pricing for our products; • our ability to secure financing necessary to operate and grow our business as planned, including through acquisitions; • the high degree of uncertainty of the level of demand for, and market utilization of, our solutions and products; • our estimates and projections may prove to be inaccurate and certain of our assets may be at risk of future impairment; • substantial regulation and the potential for unfavorable changes to, or failure by us to comply with, these regulations, which could substantially harm our business and operating results; • issues raised by the use of AI (including machine learning) in our platforms and business may result in reputational harm or liability; • a significant commercial market for biometrics technology may not develop, and even if it does, there can be no assurance our biometrics technology will be successful; • our dependency upon third-party service providers for certain technologies; • increases in costs, disruption of supply or shortage of materials, which could harm our business; • developments and projections relating to our competitors and industry; • the unavailability, reduction or elimination of government and economic incentives, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, prospects, financial condition and operating results; • our management team’s limited experience managing a public company; • our ability to hire, retain, train and motivate qualified personnel and senior management and ability to deploy our personnel and resources to meet customer demand; • our ability to successfully execute future joint ventures, channel sales relationships, partnerships, strategic alliances and subcontracting opportunities; • our ability to grow through acquisitions and successfully integrate any such acquisitions; • our ability to successfully maintain, protect, enforce and grow our intellectual property rights; • our compliance with governmental laws, trade controls, economic sanctions, customs requirements and other regulations we are subject to; • the possibility of our need to defend ourselves against fines, penalties and injunctions if we are determined to be promoting products for unapproved uses or otherwise found to have violated a law or regulation; • the effect of economic uncertainty, including high inflation, reduced spending or suspension of investment in new or enhanced projects, and concerns of economic depression or recession; • natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts, or other natural or man-made catastrophic events could disrupt and impact our business; • our significant increased expenses and administrative burdens as a public company; • the volatility of the market for our securities, including our common stock; • our ability to satisfy the continued listing requirements of the NYSE in the future; • our internal controls over financial reporting, including any potential future material weaknesses; • our ability to integrate acquisitions successfully and realize the estimate cost savings expected from the combined companies; and • other factors detailed below.
We have incurred operating losses in the past, may incur operating losses in the future, and may not achieve or maintain profitability in the future.
We have incurred operating losses each year since our inception and may continue to incur net losses in the future.
Our operating expenses may increase in the future as we optimize and grow our business, including, for example, via our sales and marketing efforts, continuing to invest in research and development, adding content and software features to our platform, expanding into new geographies and developing new products and features.
These potential efforts and additional expenses may be more costly than we expect, and we cannot guarantee that we will be able to increase our revenue to offset our operating expenses.
Our revenue may decline for a number of other reasons, including reduced demand for our products and services, increased competition, a decrease in the growth or reduction in size of our overall market, or if we cannot capitalize on strategic opportunities.
If our revenue does not grow at a greater rate than our operating expenses, we will not be able to achieve and maintain profitability.
For the years ended December 31, 2025 revenue from time-and-material and fixed-price contracts was 61% and 25% of revenue, respectively.
We may not be effective in executing this or any other aspect of our growth strategy.
For example, revenue earned from customers contributing in excess of 10% of consolidated revenues was $65 million or 51% of revenue for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025.
Our 2025 revenues from these significant customers were mainly earned from large multi-year contracts.
As of December 31, 2025, about $27 million of our approximate $248 million of total backlog is attributable to these significant customers.
The contracts are estimated to be completed during 2026.
Of the $27 million of backlog related to these significant customers as of December 31, 2025, we expect to recognize approximately 100% of that amount as revenue by the end of 2026.
If our customers do not renew or expand their agreements with us or if they renew their contracts for shorter lengths or on other terms less favorable to us, our revenue may decline or grow more slowly than expected, and our business could suffer.
As of December 31, 2025, the total remaining deal value of the contracts that we had been awarded by, or entered into with, commercial and government customers, including existing contractual obligations and contract options available to those customers was approximately $248 million.
The timing of customer billing and payment varies from contract to contract.
Other factors that may cause fluctuations in our quarterly results of operations and financial position include, without limitation, those listed below: • the success of our sales and marketing efforts, including the success of pilot deployments; • our ability to increase our margins; • the timing of expenses and revenue recognition; • the timing and amount of payments received from our customers; • termination of one or more large contracts by customers, including for convenience; • the time and cost-intensive nature of our sales efforts and the length and variability of sales cycles; • the amount and timing of operating expenses related to the maintenance and expansion of our business and operations; • the timing and effectiveness of new sales and marketing initiatives; • changes in our pricing policies or those of our competitors; • the timing and success of new products, features, and functionality introduced by us or our competitors; • cyberattacks and other actual or perceived data or security breaches; • our ability to hire and retain employees, in particular, those responsible for the development, operations and maintenance, and selling or marketing of our software; and our ability to develop and retain talented sales personnel who are able to achieve desired productivity levels in a reasonable period of time and provide sales leadership in areas in which we are expanding our sales and marketing efforts; • the amount and timing of our stock-based compensation expenses; • changes in the way we organize and compensate our sales teams; • changes in the way we operate and maintain our software; • changes in the competitive dynamics of our industry; • the cost of and potential outcomes of future claims or litigation, which could have a material adverse effect on our business; • changes in laws and regulations that impact our business, such as the Federal Acquisition Streamlining Act of 1994 (“ FASA ”); • indemnification payments to our customers or other third parties; • ability to scale our business with increasing demands; • the timing of expenses related to any future acquisitions; and • general economic, regulatory, and market conditions, including the impact of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Africa which may cause financial market volatility.
We may provide public guidance on expected results of operations for future periods.
There is no assurance that our enhancements to our software or our new product features, capabilities, or offerings, including new products or modules, will be compelling to our customers or gain market acceptance.
The competitive position of our software depends in part on its ability to operate with products and services of third parties, software services, and infrastructure, including but not limited to, in connection with our joint ventures, channel sales relationships, platform partnerships, strategic alliances, and other similar arrangements where applicable.
Our executive officers and key personnel are at-will employees and may terminate their employment relationship with us at any time.
Our success depends on our ability to effectively source and staff people with the right mix of skills and experience to perform services for our customers, including our ability to transition personnel to new assignments on a timely basis.
Once our software is deployed and integrated with our customers’ existing information technology investments, our customers depend on our support to resolve any issues relating to our products.
Our relationships with government customers and customers that are engaged in certain sensitive industries, including organizations whose products or activities are or are perceived to be harmful, has resulted in public criticism, including from political and social activists, and unfavorable coverage in the media.
We may not be successful in convincing the management teams of our potential customers to deploy our software in lieu of existing software solutions or in-house software development projects often favored by internal IT departments or other competitive products and services.
In addition, companies competing with us may have an entirely different pricing or distribution model.
As our joint ventures, channel sales relationships, platform partnerships, and strategic alliances come to an end or terminate, we may be unable to renew or replace them on comparable terms, or at all.
If we are not successful in executing our strategy to increase our sales to larger customers, our results of operations may suffer.
Negative conditions in the global economy or individual markets, including changes in gross domestic product growth, financial and credit market fluctuations, political turmoil, natural catastrophes, warfare and terrorist attacks on the United States, Europe, Australia, the Asia Pacific region or elsewhere, could cause a decrease in business investments, including spending on IT and negatively affect our business.
As of December 31, 2025, we had approximately $142.3 million of indebtedness.
If adequate funds are not available on acceptable terms, or at all, we may be unable to, among other things: • develop new products, features, capabilities, and enhancements; • continue to expand our product development, sales, and marketing organizations; • hire, train, and retain employees; • respond to competitive pressures or unanticipated working capital requirements; or • pursue acquisition or other growth opportunities.
Furthermore, the Indentures governing our 2029 Convertible Notes contain limitations on our ability to incur debt and issue preferred and/or disqualified stock.
Our Indenture governing our 2029 Convertible Notes and related documents contain, and instruments governing any future indebtedness of ours would likely contain, a number of covenants that will impose significant operating and financial restrictions on us, including restrictions on our ability to, among other things: • incur indebtedness or liens; • make restricted payments; • issue preferred stock or disqualified stock; • transact with affiliates; • sell material intellectual property; and • make investments or dispositions.
As of December 31, 2025, the remaining principal on the 2026 Convertible Notes is approximately $17.7 million and these notes mature on December 15, 2026.
As of December 31, 2025, the remaining principal on the 2029 Convertible Notes is approximately $124.6 million and these notes mature on December 15, 2029.
As of December 31, 2025, we were in compliance with all covenants and restrictions associated with our debt agreements.
An acquisition, investment or business relationship may result in unforeseen risks, operating difficulties and expenditures, including the following: • an acquisition may negatively affect our financial results because it may require us to incur charges or assume substantial debt or other liabilities, may cause adverse tax consequences or unfavorable accounting treatment, may expose us to claims and disputes by third parties, including intellectual property claims and disputes, or may not generate sufficient financial return to offset additional costs and expenses related to the acquisition; • costs and potential difficulties associated with the requirement to test and assimilate the internal control processes of the acquired business; • we may encounter difficulties or unforeseen expenditures assimilating or integrating the businesses, technologies, infrastructure, products, personnel, or operations of the acquired companies, particularly if the key personnel of the acquired company choose not to work for us or if we are unable to retain key personnel, if their technology is not easily adapted to work with ours, or if we have difficulty retaining the customers of any acquired business due to changes in ownership, management, or otherwise; • we may not realize the expected benefits of the acquisition; • an acquisition may disrupt our ongoing business, divert resources, increase our expenses, and distract our management; • an acquisition may result in a delay or reduction of customer purchases for both us and the company acquired due to customer uncertainty about continuity and effectiveness of service from either company; • the potential impact on relationships with existing customers, vendors, and distributors as business partners as a result of acquiring another company or business that competes with or otherwise is incompatible with those existing relationships; • the potential that our due diligence of the acquired company or business does not identify significant problems or liabilities, or that we underestimate the costs and effects of identified liabilities; • exposure to litigation or other claims in connection with, or inheritance of claims or litigation risk as a result of, an acquisition, including but not limited to claims from former employees, customers, or other third parties, which may differ from or be more significant than the risks our business faces; • potential goodwill impairment charges related to acquisitions; • we may encounter difficulties in, or may be unable to, successfully sell any acquired products; • an acquisition may involve the entry into geographic or business markets in which we have little or no prior experience or where competitors have stronger market positions; • an acquisition may require us to comply with additional laws and regulations, or to engage in substantial remediation efforts to cause the acquired company to comply with applicable laws or regulations, or result in liabilities resulting from the acquired company’s failure to comply with applicable laws or regulations; • our use of cash to pay for an acquisition would limit other potential uses for our cash; • if we incur debt to fund such acquisition, such debt may subject us to material restrictions on our ability to conduct our business as well as financial maintenance covenants; and • to the extent that we issue a significant amount of equity securities in connection with future acquisitions, existing stockholders may be diluted and earnings per share may decrease.
Our success depends in part on our ability to provide effective data security protection in connection with our software and services, and we rely on information technology networks and systems to securely store, transmit, index, and otherwise process electronic information.
The successful assertion of one or more large claims against us that exceed available insurance coverage, or the occurrence of changes in our insurance policies, including premium increases or the imposition of large deductible or co-insurance requirements, could harm our financial condition.

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Gone since FY2024

Consistent with the foregoing, we are exposed to a variety of risks, including risks associated with: • a significant portion of our business being dependent on sales to the public/government sector, including the risk that we may not receive or maintain government contracts or may not receive the full benefit of such contracts; • the U.S. government’s budget deficit and the national debt, as well as any inability of the U.S. government to complete its budget process for any government fiscal year and consequently having to shut down or operate on funding levels equivalent to its prior fiscal year; • our limited operating history as a combined company, which makes it difficult to evaluate our current business and future prospects; • our ability to sustain our revenue growth in the future; Table of Cont e n t s • our ability to execute our strategy to grow our business and increase our sales and the number and types of markets we compete in; • the length of our sales cycle and the time and expense associated with it; • our ability to grow our customer base and to expand our relationships with our existing customers, including with our government customers; • our reliance on customers in the public/government sector including the U.S. government, whose contracts are often only partially funded, subject to immediate termination, and heavily regulated and audited; • the market and our customers accepting and adopting our products, including future new product offerings; • the impact of health epidemics, on our business, financial condition, growth and the actions we may take in response thereto; • competition in our industry; • our ability to gain contracts on favorable terms, including with our government customers; • our ability to grow, maintain and enhance our brand and reputation; • risks related to security and our technology, including cybersecurity; • our ability to maintain competitive pricing for our products; • our ability to secure financing necessary to operate and grow our business as planned, including through acquisitions; • the high degree of uncertainty of the level of demand for, and market utilization of, our solutions and products; • our estimates and projections may prove to be inaccurate and certain of our assets may be at risk of future impairment; • substantial regulation and the potential for unfavorable changes to, or failure by us to comply with, these regulations, which could substantially harm our business and operating results; • issues raised by the use of AI (including machine learning) in our platforms and business may result in reputational harm or liability; • our dependency upon third-party service providers for certain technologies; • increases in costs, disruption of supply or shortage of materials, which could harm our business; • developments and projections relating to our competitors and industry; • the unavailability, reduction or elimination of government and economic incentives, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, prospects, financial condition and operating results; • our existing debt and our ability to refinance it on more favorable terms; • our management team’s limited experience managing a public company; • our ability to hire, retain, train and motivate qualified personnel and senior management and ability to deploy our personnel and resources to meet customer demand; • our ability to successfully execute future joint ventures, channel sales relationships, partnerships, strategic alliances and subcontracting opportunities; • our ability to grow through acquisitions and successfully integrate any such acquisitions; • our ability to successfully maintain, protect, enforce and grow our intellectual property rights; • our compliance with governmental laws, trade controls, economic sanctions, customs requirements and other regulations we are subject to; • the possibility of our need to defend ourselves against fines, penalties and injunctions if we are determined to be Table of Cont e n t s promoting products for unapproved uses or otherwise found to have violated a law or regulation; • concentration of ownership among our existing executive officers, directors and their respective affiliates, which may prevent new investors from influencing significant corporate decisions; • the effect of economic uncertainty, including high inflation, reduced spending or suspension of investment in new or enhanced projects, and concerns of economic depression or recession; • natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts, or other natural or man-made catastrophic events could disrupt and impact our business; • our significant increased expenses and administrative burdens as a public company; • the volatility of the market for our securities, including our common stock; • our ability to satisfy the continued listing requirements of the NYSE in the future; • our internal controls over financial reporting, including our ability to remedy the identified material weakness as well as any potential future material weaknesses; • our ability to integrate Pangiam successfully and realize the estimate cost savings expected from the combined companies; • any failure to realize anticipated benefits of the Pangiam acquisition; and • other factors detailed below.
Although our revenue has increased in recent periods, there can be no assurances that revenue will continue to grow or do so at current rates, and you should not rely on the revenue of any prior quarterly or annual period as an indication of our future performance.
Our revenue growth rate may decline in future periods.
We may not achieve or maintain profitability in future periods or, if we are profitable, we may not fully achieve our profitability targets.
In addition, while we remain focused on operating efficiently, we anticipate that our operating expenses will continue to increase in the future.
As we continue to expand our business and the breadth of our operations, upgrade our infrastructure, hire additional employees, expand into new markets, invest in research and development, invest in sales and marketing, and incur costs associated with general administration, including expenses related to being a public company, we expect that our costs of revenue and operating expenses will continue to increase.
Many factors may contribute to declines in our revenue growth rate, including increased competition, slowing demand for our products and services from existing and new customers, a failure by us to continue capitalizing on growth opportunities including expansion into the commercial marketplace, strategic acquisitions, the wind down of significant contracts, terminations of existing contracts or failure to exercise existing options by our customers, our failure to execute on the existing backlog of customer contracts, the maturation of our business, and a contraction of our overall market, among others.
If our revenue growth rate declines, our business, financial condition, and results of operations could be adversely affected.
For the years ended December 31, Table of Cont e n t s 2024 revenue from time-and-material and fixed-price contracts was 56% and 29% of revenue, respectively.
We may not be effective in Table of Cont e n t s executing this or any other aspect of our growth strategy.
For example, revenue earned from customers contributing in excess of 10% of consolidated revenues were derived from four customers comprising 52% of revenue for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024.
Our 2024 revenues from these significant customers were mainly earned from large multi-year contracts.
As of December 31, 2024, about $52 million of our approximate $418 million of total backlog is attributable to these significant customers.
The estimated completion dates for these contracts range from 2024 to 2026.
Of the $52 million of backlog related to these significant customers as of December 31, 2024 we expect to recognize approximately 98% of that amount as revenue by the end of 2025, with the remainder to be recognized as revenue by the end of 2027.
If our customers do not renew or expand their agreements with us or if they renew their contracts for shorter lengths or on other Table of Cont e n t s terms less favorable to us, our revenue may decline or grow more slowly than expected, and our business could suffer.
As of December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the total remaining deal value of the contracts that we had been awarded by, or entered into with, commercial and government customers, including existing contractual obligations and contract options available to those customers was approximately $418 million and $168 million, respectively.
The timing of Table of Cont e n t s customer billing and payment varies from contract to contract.
Other factors that may cause fluctuations in our quarterly results of operations and financial position include, without limitation, those listed below: • the success of our sales and marketing efforts, including the success of pilot deployments; • our ability to increase our margins; • the timing of expenses and revenue recognition; • the timing and amount of payments received from our customers; • termination of one or more large contracts by customers, including for convenience; • the time and cost-intensive nature of our sales efforts and the length and variability of sales cycles; • the amount and timing of operating expenses related to the maintenance and expansion of our business and operations; • the timing and effectiveness of new sales and marketing initiatives; • changes in our pricing policies or those of our competitors; • the timing and success of new products, features, and functionality introduced by us or our competitors; • cyberattacks and other actual or perceived data or security breaches; • our ability to hire and retain employees, in particular, those responsible for the development, operations and maintenance, and selling or marketing of our software; and our ability to develop and retain talented sales personnel who are able to achieve desired productivity levels in a reasonable period of time and provide sales leadership in areas in which we are expanding our sales and marketing efforts; • the amount and timing of our stock-based compensation expenses; • changes in the fair value of derivatives, including the convertible features of our 2029 Convertible Notes and our 2026 Convertible Notes, that are remeasured quarterly • changes in the way we organize and compensate our sales teams; • changes in the way we operate and maintain our software; • changes in the competitive dynamics of our industry; • the cost of and potential outcomes of future claims or litigation, which could have a material adverse effect on our business; • changes in laws and regulations that impact our business, such as the Federal Acquisition Streamlining Act of 1994 (“ FASA ”); • indemnification payments to our customers or other third parties; • ability to scale our business with increasing demands; • the timing of expenses related to any future acquisitions; and Table of Cont e n t s • general economic, regulatory, and market conditions, including the impact of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Africa which may cause financial market volatility.
We have provided and may continue to provide public guidance on expected results of operations for future periods.
There is no assurance that our enhancements to our software or our new product features, capabilities, or offerings, including new products or modules, will be compelling to our customers or gain market Table of Cont e n t s acceptance.
Table of Cont e n t s The competitive position of our software depends in part on its ability to operate with products and services of third parties, software services, and infrastructure, including but not limited to, in connection with our joint ventures, channel sales relationships, platform partnerships, strategic alliances, and other similar arrangements where applicable.
Some of our executive officers and key personnel are at-will employees and may terminate their employment relationship with us at any time.
Table of Cont e n t s Our success depends on our ability to effectively source and staff people with the right mix of skills and experience to perform services for our customers, including our ability to transition personnel to new assignments on a timely basis.
Once our software is deployed and integrated with our customers’ existing information technology investments, our customers Table of Cont e n t s depend on our support to resolve any issues relating to our products.
Table of Cont e n t s Our relationships with government customers and customers that are engaged in certain sensitive industries, including organizations whose products or activities are or are perceived to be harmful, has resulted in public criticism, including from political and social activists, and unfavorable coverage in the media.
We may not be successful in convincing the management teams of our potential customers to deploy our software in lieu of existing software solutions or in-house software development projects often favored by internal IT departments Table of Cont e n t s or other competitive products and services.
In addition, companies competing with us may have an entirely Table of Cont e n t s different pricing or distribution model.
Table of Cont e n t s As our joint ventures, channel sales relationships, platform partnerships, and strategic alliances come to an end or terminate, we may be unable to renew or replace them on comparable terms, or at all.
We have business and customer relationships with certain entities who are stockholders or are affiliated with our directors, or both, and conflicts of interest may arise because of such relationships.
Some of our customers and other business partners are affiliated with certain of our directors or hold shares of our capital stock, or both.
For example, in July 2021, we entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (“MOU”) with Edge Autonomy (formerly UAV Factory), a company owned by AE Industrial Partners, whereby BigBear.ai will develop AI/ML capabilities for Edge Autonomy’s unmanned systems and components used in autonomous operations within the commercial and defense markets.
We believe that the transactions and agreements that we have entered into with related parties are on terms that are at least as favorable as could reasonably have been obtained at such time from third parties.
However, these relationships could create, or appear to create, potential conflicts of interest when our Board is faced with decisions that could have different implications for us and these other parties or their affiliates.
In addition, conflicts of interest may arise between us and these other parties and their affiliates.
The appearance of conflicts, even if such conflicts do not materialize, might adversely affect the public’s perception of us, as well as our relationship with other companies and our ability to enter into new relationships in the future, including with competitors of such related parties, which could harm our business and results of operations.
Table of Cont e n t s If we are not successful in executing our strategy to increase our sales to larger customers, our results of operations may suffer.
Negative conditions in the global economy or individual markets, including changes in gross domestic product growth, financial and credit market fluctuations, political turmoil, natural catastrophes, warfare and terrorist attacks on the United States, Europe, Australia, the Asia Pacific region Table of Cont e n t s or elsewhere, could cause a decrease in business investments, including spending on IT and negatively affect our business.
As of December 31, 2024, we had approximately $200.0 million of total indebtedness.
If adequate funds are not available on acceptable terms, or at all, we may be unable to, among other things: Table of Cont e n t s • develop new products, features, capabilities, and enhancements; • continue to expand our product development, sales, and marketing organizations; • hire, train, and retain employees; • respond to competitive pressures or unanticipated working capital requirements; or • pursue acquisition or other growth opportunities.

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Sentence-level comparison of Item 1A in the two most recent 10-Ks (FY2024 ↗, FY2025 ↗). A reworded sentence counts as one dropped and one added, so heavy edits read as low “kept”. Headings and page furniture are stripped; nothing is summarised by a model.

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